Textile and garment exports declined, sales remained stable.
The global economic and domestic economic data continued to improve, the Fed raised interest rates and the financial commodity market oscillates sharply. In the 1-11 month of 2016, the total export volume of textile and clothing in China was 244 billion 185 million US dollars, 5% of the year-on-year decline, of which the total export volume of textiles was 97 billion 162 million US dollars, 2.60% compared to the same period, and the total export volume of clothing was 147 billion 23 million US dollars, and 6.51% fell from the same period.
One, a review of the cotton market
1. the trend of cotton prices in China is weakening. In December, the new cotton market increased, the supply pressure gradually increased, and cotton prices weakened. In December 21st, the settlement price of the main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 14990 yuan / ton, down 1280 yuan / ton from last month, down 7.9%, and the national cotton price B index was 15788 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan / ton from last month, and the increase was 0.2%.
Recently, the US dollar index has risen sharply, commodity prices have dropped, and international cotton prices have declined. In November 21, 2016, ICE cotton futures contract settlement price of 70.13 cents / pound, down 2.2 cents / pound, or 3%. The international cotton index (M) was 77.85 cents per pound, and the ring fell by 2.6 cents per pound, down 3.2%. According to the 1% tariff, the import cost of RMB was 13836 yuan / ton (the exchange rate was calculated under the customs rate 6.8592, the same below), lower than the national cotton price B index (representing the mainland white cotton 3) 1952 yuan / ton.
2. the price of cotton and cotton yarn in foreign countries is relatively stable. In December 20th, India's domestic cotton price (S-6) was 72.69 cents per pound, and the ring fell 2.03 cents per pound, down 2.7%. According to the 1% tariff, the import cost of RMB was 12945 yuan / ton, compared with the national cotton price B index 2889 yuan / ton; the domestic cotton price in Pakistan (the Karachi Cotton Association standard grade) was 73.20 cents per pound, and the ring was up 2.96 cents a pound. An increase of 4.2%, according to the 1% tariff, the cost of import of RMB is 13133 yuan / ton, which is 2801 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index.
On 13-16 December 2016, the average weekly average price of 32 pure cotton yarns in China was 23196 yuan per ton, and the ring ratio rose by 321 yuan / ton, up 1.4%, and the average weekly price of pure cotton yarn in India was 2.6 US dollars per kilogram, the ring ratio fell 0.1/ kg, and the import cost of RMB was 21996 yuan / ton, compared with 1200 yuan / ton low in domestic pure cotton yarn, and Pakistan domestic 30. The average weekly price of the cotton yarn is 2.95 US dollars per kilogram, the ring is up to 0.11/ kg, and the import cost of RMB is 24903 yuan / ton, which is 1707 yuan / ton higher than the domestic 32 pure cotton yarns.
55 thousand tons of cotton were imported in 3.11 months. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 55 thousand tons of cotton in November 2016, an increase of 14 thousand tons from the previous month, an increase of 33%, a decrease of 29 thousand tons and a decrease of 34.7% over the same period last year. In 2016 1-11, China imported 752 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 534 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 41.3%. In September 2016 -2016 November, China imported 157 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 20 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 11.4%.
4. the export of textiles and clothing has declined slightly. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in November 2016, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 21 billion 620 million US dollars, a 0.76% increase of the ring, a 1.63% decrease compared with the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was 9 billion 30 million US dollars, up 4.18% from the same period, and the export volume of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 12 billion 590 million US dollars, and was down 5.41% from the same period.
Two. A summary of the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad
1. the global economic environment is better. In November, the ISM of the US Manufacturing Management Association (PMI) was 53.2, higher than expected, the biggest increase since June. In the same period, the final value of PMI in the US Markit manufacturing industry was 54.1, which was also higher than expected, of which the new order index was the highest since March 2015. The US consumer confidence index of University of Michigan in December climbed to 98, up from 93.8 and expected at the end of November, the highest since January 2015.
Employment in the EU and the euro area has been rising but not as expected. The statistics of the European Union Statistics Bureau showed that both the euro zone and the European Union grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of this year. The number of European Union employment increased by 1.1% in the third quarter of this year, and the number of employment in the euro area increased by 1.2% over the same period. The failure of the referendum held in Italy on the amendment of the constitution triggered the market's concern about the risk of Italy's banking and European economic risks. According to the Bank of Japan report, the index of large manufacturing boom in December increased significantly, the highest level since December 2015.
2. the domestic economy is steady in the middle. In November, the main domestic economic data continued to pick up, but the recovery was still weak. In November 2016, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, continuing upward trend. Production index and new order index rebounded more obviously. In November 2016, the industrial added value above the scale increased by 6.2%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in October, and the industrial added value above the scale increased by 6% in the month of 1-11.
In November 2016, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.8% over the same period last year, 0.8 percentage points faster than last month, down 0.4 percentage points from last month. Online retail grew by 26.2% over the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points faster than last month, 6.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In 1-11 months, the fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 8.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was unchanged from 1-10 months.